OPINION: Kamala Harris's Choices for VP - Ranked

(Photo Credit: United States Senate - Office of Senator Kamala Harris | Wikimedia Commons)

This new season of American Politics keeps getting more interesting, more chaotic, and more historic by the day. Since Joe Biden has announced his withdrawal from the 2028 Presidential Election, Vice President Kamala Harris is now the presumptive nominee of the Democratic party. While this move has been labeled by Republicans (and even some on the left) as an undemocratic coronation, most members of the Democratic party, including Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and the Clintons, have put their support behind Harris. Moreover, Harris has now received pledges from enough delegates to become the presumptive nominee of her party.

Inevitably, this raises a major question: who will Harris choose to be her running mate? Before we answer, however, we must note that Kamala Harris’s most likely path to victory would include winning the Blue Wall – the rust belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. To do this, it is imperative that she appeals to both working class and progressive voters in these states. Since Harris already has a history of progressive appeal, she should choose a candidate that softly complements her progressivism and opens a new avenue of support from the working class. I believe she has several good choices that could stabilize her newly launched campaign. I have ranked these choices below.

5. Andy Beshear

Not only does the two-term governor of Kentucky have an impressive electoral record (he has won two gubernatorial races in a deep red state), but he is also perceived as a moderate that could balance the ticket and quiet claims about Kamala Harris’s liberal record and radical comments. However, whether Beshear is on the ticket or not, Kentucky will almost certainly elect President Trump. Beshear would not be as effective in the rust belt and offers less of an electoral advantage than others on this list.

4. Raphael Warnock

The Georgia senator is well-spoken, relatively popular in his state, and could tighten the race in Georgia that currently favors Trump. He could also complement Harris’s progressive persona by appealing to black voters, especially in Fulton County, which houses Atlanta and was one of the most important counties in the 2020 election. While it is possible that Warnock could flip Georgia as Harris’s running mate, it is still unlikely. Additionally, if Warnock were elected as Vice President, he would automatically give his open seat in the Senate to the Republicans; Governor Brian Kemp would appoint a Republican Senator in Warnock’s stead. While Warnock offers some positive advantages to her ticket, Kamala Harris can and should choose a more effective running mate.  

3. Roy Cooper

The Governor of North Carolina has a net-positive approval rating in a consequential swing state. If Harris picks Cooper, she will have a much better chance at flipping North Carolina, a state that Trump won by a narrow margin in 2020. If she wins North Carolina, she could get away with losing Michigan or Wisconsin, which would give her a small amount of breathing room in the Blue Wall. But like Warnock in Georgia, it is unlikely that Cooper would cause North Carolina to flip. A recent North Carolina poll shows Cooper losing a hypothetical presidential matchup against Trump by four points.

2. Josh Shapiro

Shapiro is one of two candidates on this list who would have an immediate positive impact on Harris’s campaign. As the current governor of Pennsylvania, he is a moderate Democrat with extremely high approval ratings a solid working-class appeal. A Pennsylvania poll shows Shapiro defeating Trump by four points, but has Harris losing to Trump by four. If Harris chooses Shapiro as her running mate, her chances will soar not only in Pennsylvania, but also in Michigan and Wisconsin. There is, however, one problem with Shapiro for the Democrats – a problem that they would not like to admit but is clearly an issue within their party. Josh Shapiro is both Jewish and pro-Israel. Choosing him as her running mate could alienate Harris from progressive voters who have taken a hard stance against any candidate who supports Israel. Were it not for this problem within the Democratic party, I would have listed Shapiro as Harris’s most effective choice.

1. Mark Kelly

As the current frontrunner for Harris’s VP pick, Mark Kelly provides some serious electoral advantages. First, he is a senator in the key swing-state of Arizona, which narrowly flipped to the Democrats in 2020 but is favorable to Trump in 2024. If Kelly is Harris’s running mate, the democrats will have a much better chance at retaining Arizona and its 11 electoral votes. A victory in Arizona would allow Harris to lose Wisconsin and still win the election if she defeats Trump in the other two blue wall states. However, more importantly than his advantage in Arizona, Mark Kelly is a very accomplished man with appeal to the working class. As a Navy veteran and former astronaut, Kelly would appeal to young men across the country, especially in the three blue wall states. His perceived juxtaposition to Harris’s more progressive, intersectional personality could give her a considerable boost to her chances of winning the election.

Notable Absences

Pete Buttigieg and Gretchen Whitmer – While I believe both would be solid choices, I think Buttigieg has more negative ties to the Biden Administration than a fresh-faced governor or senator from a swing state would have. As for Whitmer, she has already declined to be Harris’s running mate and has opted to co-chair her campaign instead.

Does it really matter?

The short answer? Not much. I believe that most Americans already have an opinion of Donald Trump and have decided whether or not they will vote for him. Even if they haven’t, most swing voters will make their choices based on Harris’s words and record, not on those of her running mate. I also believe most of the candidates on this list would fare similarly in a debate against J.D. Vance, Trump’s Vice-Presidential nominee. Aside from choosing someone who has working-class appeal, the most important thing for Harris to do is to pick a running mate that stabilizes her and doesn’t hurt her. All the choices listed above are relatively moderate and complement her ticket. While it is fun to speculate, Harris will make her choice in the coming days and weeks. It is then that we will begin to see the effects of her pick on the state of the race.