STATE OF THE RACE: July 26, 2024

2020 Election Results Map by County (Photo Credit: Mattosaurus | Wikimedia Commons)

Welcome to The Battleground Report’s first edition of State of the Race! In this series of articles, we will analyze the state of the 2024 Presidential Election based on polling data, betting market odds, fundraising numbers, and historical trends.

What’s Happened?

Since the attempted assassination of President Donald Trump and the unified Republican National Convention, there have been some dramatic changes in the state of the election. After a period of fending off immense pressure from prominent Democrats, President Joe Biden has finally withdrawn from the 2024 election. His Vice President, Kamala Harris, with support from Biden, Barack and Michelle Obama, Chuck Schumer, and Nancy Pelosi, has all but officially secured the Democratic nomination for president. Since this drastic change, the numbers – polling, betting odds, and fundraising data – suggest that the race between Trump and Harris is much closer than the recently canceled one between Trump and Biden.

Polling Breakdown

Just before President Biden dropped out of the race, the RealClearPolitics/RealClearPolling (RCP) polling average showed Trump ahead of Biden by of 3.3 percentage points. The current average, however, shows Kamala Harris inching closer to Trump, as she is only 1.9 points behind. Five recent polls show that the race is either within or close to within the polls’ respective margins of error. The numbers are as follows:

                  NY Times/Siena: Trump – 48, Harris – 47 (Trump +1)

                  CNN: Trump – 49, Harris – 46 (Trump +3)

                  Morning Consult: Trump – 45, Harris – 46 (Harris +1)

                  Reuters/Ipsos: Trump – 42, Harris – 44 (Harris +2)

                  NPR/PBS/Marist: Trump – 46, Harris – 45 (Trump +1)

While the race has gotten tighter nationally, polling in battleground states still indicates an electoral college advantage for Trump. The current RCP polling averages from the key swing states are as follows:

                  Pennsylvania: Trump +3.6

                  Michigan: Trump +1.5

                  Wisconsin: Trump +0.7

                  Arizona: Trump +6.4

Georgia: Trump +4.5

                  Nevada (Old average with Trump v. Biden): Trump +5.6

                  North Carolina (Old average with Trump v. Biden): Trump +5.7

If the actual results follow these polling numbers, Trump will win the election. However, it is important to note two things. First, there have been very few polls conducted since Harris officially entered the race. We may see these polls tighten, or even flip, once she has campaigned more. Secondly, Harris has the chance to pick a Vice-Presidential nominee that could tighten the race. Many pundits believe she will choose a governor or senator from a battleground state. If you want more information about the Harris Veepstakes, check out this article.

Betting Odds Breakdown:

While betting odds are not cited in election predictions nearly as much as polling, they can be a great indicator of where the election stands because people are actually putting their money into their opinions when they place bets. According to Polymarket’s election forecast, Donald Trump’s odds of retaining the presidency have decreased from 72% (days after the assassination attempt and in the middle of the RNC) to 60% (after Harris has replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee). Harris’s odds of winning the election have surged to 39%. These numbers indicate a general public belief that Harris has tightened the race significantly.

Fundraising Breakdown:

Perhaps the most impressive part of Kamala Harris’s young campaign is her fundraising. According to USA Today, Harris raised a record-setting $100 million-plus in its first 48 hours. While this is significant and should not be discounted, it is likely that many Democrat donors have waited to pour their money into the campaign until they knew Biden would be replaced as the nominee.

Don’t Forget Polling Bias:

No matter what the mainstream media say about data, the polls have historically underestimated President Trump. For example, the 2020 RCP final polling average had Joe Biden ahead of Trump by 7.2 points nationally, but he only lost the popular vote by 4.5 points. Similarly, in 2016, RCP’s average showed Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump by 3.2 Points, but he only lost the popular vote by 2.1. If this trend of underestimating Trump continues, he is slated to win the popular vote by two to four points. This type of popular vote victory would all but guarantee him an electoral college win. However, this race is unprecedented given that Harris has entered the race within four months of Election Day. This could shift polling bias and the national climate to favor her, but time will tell.

TLDR:

While Kamala Harris has made some gains nationally, she is still behind President Donald Trump in the race, especially in key swing states. It appears that 2024 is still Trump’s race to lose, but time will tell how the unprecedented, historic events of the last few weeks, as well as Harris’s VP pick and the DNC, will shape the election.

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The Battleground Report